Who will win Brazil’s second round?

Now that Marina Silva’s “independent” campaign has ended in her rejection by the voters, we need to analyse what this means for the deciding round between the Workers’ Party’s (PT) incumbent Dilma Rousseff and her right-wing opponent AĆ©cio Neves. Silva herself has not declared her preference, but indications are that she might favour Neves, which is further support for my argument with progressive friends who were naively backing her in the first round.

Why does it matter? Has the PT itself not evolved into a hopelessly compromised Blairite neo-liberal party, so that the election does not make much difference? As I argued in my previous article, whether Brazil turns its back on leftist governments in Latin America such as the US State Department’s bugbear Venezuela is very important for the region’s poorest inhabitants. And Washington and Brussels will be taking a keen interest in whether “their” candidate Neves could begin to reverse the independence of Latin America achieved in the last 15 years. The election is also important for Brazil’s own poor.

A striking aspect of the first round of voting in the Brazilian presidential elections was the geographical split between left and right, red in the poorer north and north-east and blue in the richer south and south-east. A danger to the progress made in Brazil in eradicating poverty in the last 12 years is the attitude and electoral heft of the middle-class in those southern areas. The “bolsa familia” which provides a basic income to the poorest families is resented by this middle-class, and frequently dismissed as the “bolsa-esmola”, or beggar’s benefit.

After Neves’ impressive showing in the first round (33.6% vs Dilma’s 41.6%), the question remains whether his surge has already peaked, having taken votes from Marina Silva as her campaign sank. The right hopes not, and all progressives should hope that the mere 30% of Silva’s voters that Dilma needs in the second round will migrate to her. The first opinion poll is tomorrow (Thursday)…

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